NASA has announced that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4, previously identified as a potential “city killer,” no longer poses a significant threat to Earth. Current assessments show that the asteroid now has a mere 0.004% chance of impacting our planet during its close approach in 2032. This marks a considerable decrease compared to earlier estimates.

Trajectory Analysis and Updated Probabilities

Initially, the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies estimated a 3% probability of collision, which was subsequently revised to 0.28%. Continued observation has allowed scientists to refine their models, moving the projected trajectory of the asteroid farther away from Earth.

According to NASA, “The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory.” The agency now believes there is no foreseeable risk of the 2024 YR4 impacting Earth for at least the next century.

Possible Impact on the Moon

While the threat to Earth has diminished, the asteroid could still potentially intersect with the Moon’s orbit. Data indicates there is approximately a 1.7% chance of 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon.

Asteroid Discovery and Characteristics

The 2024 YR4 asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, comparable to a football field.

Navigating Future Risks

NASA continues to monitor asteroids and other near-Earth objects through its Sentry program, which automatically scans the current asteroid catalog for potential threats that could impact Earth within the next century. This program plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety and awareness of potential celestial hazards.